Poisson distribution: why does time between events follow an exponential distribution?The Number of Exponential Summands in a Fixed Interval is Poisson

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Poisson distribution: why does time between events follow an exponential distribution?


The Number of Exponential Summands in a Fixed Interval is Poisson






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3












$begingroup$


I was reading an article, and came across the following:




Purchase count follows a Poisson distribution with rate λ. In other
words, the timing of these purchases is somewhat random, but the rate
(in counts/unit time) is constant. In turn, this implies that the
inter-purchase time at the customer level should follow an exponential
distribution.




It's been quite a while since I did any statistics so I am struggling with the definitions of a Poisson distribution. What I understand by the "rate is constant" is that if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?



Where I believe I am confused is with the final sentence. Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on? Doesn't this contradict the idea that we have a constant rate of purchase?










share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$











  • $begingroup$
    For a full account of this, including definitions, see stats.stackexchange.com/questions/214421. For related posts, see stats.stackexchange.com/… Another useful search (focusing on "memoryless") is stats.stackexchange.com/….
    $endgroup$
    – whuber
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    $$$$ "if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?" $textbfYes.$ $$$$ "Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on?" $textbfNo,$ that's not what it means at all. $qquad$
    $endgroup$
    – Michael Hardy
    5 hours ago

















3












$begingroup$


I was reading an article, and came across the following:




Purchase count follows a Poisson distribution with rate λ. In other
words, the timing of these purchases is somewhat random, but the rate
(in counts/unit time) is constant. In turn, this implies that the
inter-purchase time at the customer level should follow an exponential
distribution.




It's been quite a while since I did any statistics so I am struggling with the definitions of a Poisson distribution. What I understand by the "rate is constant" is that if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?



Where I believe I am confused is with the final sentence. Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on? Doesn't this contradict the idea that we have a constant rate of purchase?










share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$











  • $begingroup$
    For a full account of this, including definitions, see stats.stackexchange.com/questions/214421. For related posts, see stats.stackexchange.com/… Another useful search (focusing on "memoryless") is stats.stackexchange.com/….
    $endgroup$
    – whuber
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    $$$$ "if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?" $textbfYes.$ $$$$ "Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on?" $textbfNo,$ that's not what it means at all. $qquad$
    $endgroup$
    – Michael Hardy
    5 hours ago













3












3








3


1



$begingroup$


I was reading an article, and came across the following:




Purchase count follows a Poisson distribution with rate λ. In other
words, the timing of these purchases is somewhat random, but the rate
(in counts/unit time) is constant. In turn, this implies that the
inter-purchase time at the customer level should follow an exponential
distribution.




It's been quite a while since I did any statistics so I am struggling with the definitions of a Poisson distribution. What I understand by the "rate is constant" is that if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?



Where I believe I am confused is with the final sentence. Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on? Doesn't this contradict the idea that we have a constant rate of purchase?










share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$




I was reading an article, and came across the following:




Purchase count follows a Poisson distribution with rate λ. In other
words, the timing of these purchases is somewhat random, but the rate
(in counts/unit time) is constant. In turn, this implies that the
inter-purchase time at the customer level should follow an exponential
distribution.




It's been quite a while since I did any statistics so I am struggling with the definitions of a Poisson distribution. What I understand by the "rate is constant" is that if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?



Where I believe I am confused is with the final sentence. Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on? Doesn't this contradict the idea that we have a constant rate of purchase?







poisson-distribution






share|cite|improve this question













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share|cite|improve this question










asked 9 hours ago









J. StottJ. Stott

163




163











  • $begingroup$
    For a full account of this, including definitions, see stats.stackexchange.com/questions/214421. For related posts, see stats.stackexchange.com/… Another useful search (focusing on "memoryless") is stats.stackexchange.com/….
    $endgroup$
    – whuber
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    $$$$ "if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?" $textbfYes.$ $$$$ "Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on?" $textbfNo,$ that's not what it means at all. $qquad$
    $endgroup$
    – Michael Hardy
    5 hours ago
















  • $begingroup$
    For a full account of this, including definitions, see stats.stackexchange.com/questions/214421. For related posts, see stats.stackexchange.com/… Another useful search (focusing on "memoryless") is stats.stackexchange.com/….
    $endgroup$
    – whuber
    8 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    $$$$ "if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?" $textbfYes.$ $$$$ "Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on?" $textbfNo,$ that's not what it means at all. $qquad$
    $endgroup$
    – Michael Hardy
    5 hours ago















$begingroup$
For a full account of this, including definitions, see stats.stackexchange.com/questions/214421. For related posts, see stats.stackexchange.com/… Another useful search (focusing on "memoryless") is stats.stackexchange.com/….
$endgroup$
– whuber
8 hours ago





$begingroup$
For a full account of this, including definitions, see stats.stackexchange.com/questions/214421. For related posts, see stats.stackexchange.com/… Another useful search (focusing on "memoryless") is stats.stackexchange.com/….
$endgroup$
– whuber
8 hours ago













$begingroup$
$$$$ "if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?" $textbfYes.$ $$$$ "Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on?" $textbfNo,$ that's not what it means at all. $qquad$
$endgroup$
– Michael Hardy
5 hours ago




$begingroup$
$$$$ "if a customer purchases 1 thing on average in a week, they purchase 4 things on average in a four-week period. Is this correct?" $textbfYes.$ $$$$ "Is this saying that the time between a customers purchases would grow exponentially as time goes on?" $textbfNo,$ that's not what it means at all. $qquad$
$endgroup$
– Michael Hardy
5 hours ago










2 Answers
2






active

oldest

votes


















2












$begingroup$

Exponential distribution doesn't imply that time between events grows exponentially. All it tells you is that probability to wait longer between events declines very quickly with waiting time. The probability density is:$$lambda e^-lambda t$$ where $lambda$ is Poisson intensity, i.e. average number of events in unit of time, and $t$ is the waiting time. The average waiting time is obviously $1/lambda$.






share|cite|improve this answer









$endgroup$




















    2












    $begingroup$

    Let $X_t$ be the number of arrivals in the Poisson process with rate $lambda$ between time $0$ and time $tge0.$ Then we have
    $$
    Pr(X_t=x) = frac(lambda t)^x e^-lambda tx! text for x=0,1,2,3,ldots
    $$



    Let $T$ be the time until the first arrival.



    Then the following two events are really both the same event:
    $$
    Big[ X_t=0Big]. qquad Big[ T>t Big].
    $$

    So they both have the same probability. Thus
    $$
    Pr(T>t) = Pr(X_t=0) = frac(lambda t)^0 e^-lambda t0! = e^-lambda t.
    $$

    So
    $$
    Pr(T>t) = e^-lambda t text for tge0.
    $$

    That says $T$ is exponentially distributed.






    share|cite|improve this answer









    $endgroup$













      Your Answer








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      2 Answers
      2






      active

      oldest

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      2 Answers
      2






      active

      oldest

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      active

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      active

      oldest

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      2












      $begingroup$

      Exponential distribution doesn't imply that time between events grows exponentially. All it tells you is that probability to wait longer between events declines very quickly with waiting time. The probability density is:$$lambda e^-lambda t$$ where $lambda$ is Poisson intensity, i.e. average number of events in unit of time, and $t$ is the waiting time. The average waiting time is obviously $1/lambda$.






      share|cite|improve this answer









      $endgroup$

















        2












        $begingroup$

        Exponential distribution doesn't imply that time between events grows exponentially. All it tells you is that probability to wait longer between events declines very quickly with waiting time. The probability density is:$$lambda e^-lambda t$$ where $lambda$ is Poisson intensity, i.e. average number of events in unit of time, and $t$ is the waiting time. The average waiting time is obviously $1/lambda$.






        share|cite|improve this answer









        $endgroup$















          2












          2








          2





          $begingroup$

          Exponential distribution doesn't imply that time between events grows exponentially. All it tells you is that probability to wait longer between events declines very quickly with waiting time. The probability density is:$$lambda e^-lambda t$$ where $lambda$ is Poisson intensity, i.e. average number of events in unit of time, and $t$ is the waiting time. The average waiting time is obviously $1/lambda$.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$



          Exponential distribution doesn't imply that time between events grows exponentially. All it tells you is that probability to wait longer between events declines very quickly with waiting time. The probability density is:$$lambda e^-lambda t$$ where $lambda$ is Poisson intensity, i.e. average number of events in unit of time, and $t$ is the waiting time. The average waiting time is obviously $1/lambda$.







          share|cite|improve this answer












          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer










          answered 9 hours ago









          AksakalAksakal

          40.4k453121




          40.4k453121























              2












              $begingroup$

              Let $X_t$ be the number of arrivals in the Poisson process with rate $lambda$ between time $0$ and time $tge0.$ Then we have
              $$
              Pr(X_t=x) = frac(lambda t)^x e^-lambda tx! text for x=0,1,2,3,ldots
              $$



              Let $T$ be the time until the first arrival.



              Then the following two events are really both the same event:
              $$
              Big[ X_t=0Big]. qquad Big[ T>t Big].
              $$

              So they both have the same probability. Thus
              $$
              Pr(T>t) = Pr(X_t=0) = frac(lambda t)^0 e^-lambda t0! = e^-lambda t.
              $$

              So
              $$
              Pr(T>t) = e^-lambda t text for tge0.
              $$

              That says $T$ is exponentially distributed.






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$

















                2












                $begingroup$

                Let $X_t$ be the number of arrivals in the Poisson process with rate $lambda$ between time $0$ and time $tge0.$ Then we have
                $$
                Pr(X_t=x) = frac(lambda t)^x e^-lambda tx! text for x=0,1,2,3,ldots
                $$



                Let $T$ be the time until the first arrival.



                Then the following two events are really both the same event:
                $$
                Big[ X_t=0Big]. qquad Big[ T>t Big].
                $$

                So they both have the same probability. Thus
                $$
                Pr(T>t) = Pr(X_t=0) = frac(lambda t)^0 e^-lambda t0! = e^-lambda t.
                $$

                So
                $$
                Pr(T>t) = e^-lambda t text for tge0.
                $$

                That says $T$ is exponentially distributed.






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$















                  2












                  2








                  2





                  $begingroup$

                  Let $X_t$ be the number of arrivals in the Poisson process with rate $lambda$ between time $0$ and time $tge0.$ Then we have
                  $$
                  Pr(X_t=x) = frac(lambda t)^x e^-lambda tx! text for x=0,1,2,3,ldots
                  $$



                  Let $T$ be the time until the first arrival.



                  Then the following two events are really both the same event:
                  $$
                  Big[ X_t=0Big]. qquad Big[ T>t Big].
                  $$

                  So they both have the same probability. Thus
                  $$
                  Pr(T>t) = Pr(X_t=0) = frac(lambda t)^0 e^-lambda t0! = e^-lambda t.
                  $$

                  So
                  $$
                  Pr(T>t) = e^-lambda t text for tge0.
                  $$

                  That says $T$ is exponentially distributed.






                  share|cite|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$



                  Let $X_t$ be the number of arrivals in the Poisson process with rate $lambda$ between time $0$ and time $tge0.$ Then we have
                  $$
                  Pr(X_t=x) = frac(lambda t)^x e^-lambda tx! text for x=0,1,2,3,ldots
                  $$



                  Let $T$ be the time until the first arrival.



                  Then the following two events are really both the same event:
                  $$
                  Big[ X_t=0Big]. qquad Big[ T>t Big].
                  $$

                  So they both have the same probability. Thus
                  $$
                  Pr(T>t) = Pr(X_t=0) = frac(lambda t)^0 e^-lambda t0! = e^-lambda t.
                  $$

                  So
                  $$
                  Pr(T>t) = e^-lambda t text for tge0.
                  $$

                  That says $T$ is exponentially distributed.







                  share|cite|improve this answer












                  share|cite|improve this answer



                  share|cite|improve this answer










                  answered 6 hours ago









                  Michael HardyMichael Hardy

                  4,2791430




                  4,2791430



























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