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How many people are necessary to maintain modern civilisation?


What are the necessary professions of an advanced societyHow many people are required for a healthy re-population of the Earth (Post-Apocalypse)?Mr. Fusion reality has a global warming problemHow many human beings are/were there?How many humans do you need to maintain a population indefinitely?How Many People Per Dam Arcology?How many people does it take to run a self sufficient colonyHow many people would it take to colonize Mars?Every murderer and rapist in the world vanished without a trace. How many people is that?How many people need to be born every 8 years to sustain population?






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8












$begingroup$


Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.



Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?



For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.



Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?



Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.




Clarification



There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.



By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".



By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.










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  • $begingroup$
    Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
    $endgroup$
    – L.Dutch
    1 hour ago

















8












$begingroup$


Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.



Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?



For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.



Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?



Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.




Clarification



There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.



By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".



By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.










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  • $begingroup$
    Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
    $endgroup$
    – L.Dutch
    1 hour ago













8












8








8





$begingroup$


Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.



Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?



For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.



Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?



Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.




Clarification



There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.



By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".



By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.










share|improve this question









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user65791 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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$endgroup$




Modern Earth; a series of connected events (natural disasters, mass migration, drug-resistant pandemic, collapse in biodiversity, armed conflict) have led to a significant reduction in human population over a single generation.



Does "civilisation" continue? Societies could certainly adapt to short-term disruptions—but if the complex, global, inter-connected supply chains upon which they currently depend do not recover sufficiently quickly, would they not collapse entirely?



For example, a number of contemporary industries (unfortunately) depend upon oil: not only is most transportation fuelled by petroleum; but most fertilisers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and plastics are also derived from it. If oil extraction, refinery and distribution were to suddenly cease for a sustained period (before such dependent industries have identified and adapted to alternatives), oil reserves would deplete and those industries themselves could collapse. That in turn could lead to a collapse of further dependent industries, including the manufacture of machines used in virtually any given supply chain.



Do we have any idea how many people are required to keep "it" (the modern industrial world) functioning?



Please give due consideration to the fact that disaster-struck areas may be uninhabitable, with their populations migrating en-masse and seeking refuge in other areas—thereby placing further strains on the system.




Clarification



There have been some very probing and helpful comments, which have prompted me to spend some considerable time reflecting on exactly what my question is and this edit is an attempt to elaborate. My thanks to all those commenters who contributed to this discussion.



By "significant reduction in human population over a single generation", let's assume the reduction is unforeseen, uniform across all demographics and complete within 10 years. To be clear, it is an "unmitigated apocalypse".



By "maintain the modern industrial world", I meant maintain our current technology. It strikes me that a good measure of this is the smartphone—it requires mining and refining many minerals, including some that are so rare that viable ore has only been found in a few locations on the planet; even once refined, maufacture of some parts (e.g. 7nm-process semiconductor fabrication) is so specialist that the number of capable facilities can be counted on one hand; even once assembled and distributed, their function depends on an infrastructure of components (antennæ, switches, routers, servers, etc) that themselves require such parts and maintenance thereof.







science-based society post-apocalypse civilization population






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edited 6 hours ago







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asked 12 hours ago









user65791user65791

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    $endgroup$
    – L.Dutch
    1 hour ago
















  • $begingroup$
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    $endgroup$
    – L.Dutch
    1 hour ago















$begingroup$
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1 hour ago




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Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been moved to chat.
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1 hour ago










4 Answers
4






active

oldest

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6












$begingroup$

I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.



The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.



In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.



If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.



This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.



To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.



The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
    $endgroup$
    – eggyal
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    11 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
    $endgroup$
    – Morris The Cat
    9 hours ago


















4












$begingroup$

I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.



You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
    $endgroup$
    – Alexander
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
    $endgroup$
    – user65791
    10 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    10 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
    $endgroup$
    – Starfish Prime
    10 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago



















0












$begingroup$

This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.



Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    "The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    No, not the whole West.
    $endgroup$
    – Curiosity
    1 hour ago


















-2












$begingroup$

What we DON'T need



Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.



  • Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
    can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
    of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
    team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments.

  • Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
    and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels.

  • Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!

  • Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
    situation and type of government.

  • Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
    technology, so they too can be dismissed.

Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation



  • Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
    mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots.

  • Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
    heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
    people to operate and maintain the machinery.

  • Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
    they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
    them and so on. This too will affect the final number.

The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?



The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.




To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.






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$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
    $endgroup$
    – Penguino
    5 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
    $endgroup$
    – Ray Butterworth
    4 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    @RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago











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4 Answers
4






active

oldest

votes








4 Answers
4






active

oldest

votes









active

oldest

votes






active

oldest

votes









6












$begingroup$

I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.



The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.



In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.



If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.



This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.



To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.



The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
    $endgroup$
    – eggyal
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    11 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
    $endgroup$
    – Morris The Cat
    9 hours ago















6












$begingroup$

I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.



The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.



In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.



If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.



This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.



To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.



The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
    $endgroup$
    – eggyal
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    11 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
    $endgroup$
    – Morris The Cat
    9 hours ago













6












6








6





$begingroup$

I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.



The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.



In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.



If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.



This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.



To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.



The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$



I'm going to respond to this with a framing challenge, because as it stands I think you're asking the wrong question.



The issue is that the modern industrial world is a product of population DENSITY rather than total population. This may seem semantic but in a post-apocalyptic environment it's very meaningful. Modern industrialism depends on and benefits from massive economies of scale that accrue from having lots of people all close enough together to quickly and easily exchange goods and services.



In a post-apocalyptic scenario, if you're envisioning two million survivors scattered across the entire planet, they're all going to be spending pretty much all of their time just keeping themselves fed and sheltered, and it's straight back to a hunter/gatherer economy worldwide.



If, however, you're envisioning two million survivors concentrated in a specific area that (for example) quarantined itself before anybody could be infected with the zombie virus, then you'd potentially have enough critical mass of different kinds of expertise to allow cooperative maintenance and task specialization: e.g. you have a bunch of people whose entire job is providing the food for everybody. You have another bunch whose entire job is maintaining power/water/electric. You have another bunch who kill the zombies before they swim across the river.



This is basically how urban societies developed in the first place, and the same rules would apply in an apocalypse.



To more directly answer your question: The larger an area your population of survivors is spread across, the more people you need. The more widely distributed the resources you require are (food, water, factories, sources of raw materials), the fewer people you need.



The number could potentially be as low as a few hundred in a commune out in the middle of Nowhere, Idaho that already has its own self-sufficient sources of food, water, and power, and a smattering of skilled electricians, mechanics, and engineers.







share|improve this answer












share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer










answered 11 hours ago









Morris The CatMorris The Cat

4,9851128




4,9851128











  • $begingroup$
    I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
    $endgroup$
    – eggyal
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    11 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
    $endgroup$
    – Morris The Cat
    9 hours ago
















  • $begingroup$
    I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
    $endgroup$
    – eggyal
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    11 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
    $endgroup$
    – Morris The Cat
    9 hours ago















$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
11 hours ago




$begingroup$
I agree with much of this, but I think @CarlWitthoft also raises a valid point. It’s one thing to say that a surviving city has enough people to cope, but they will need to adapt—and the timeframe is such that adaptation may not be feasible.
$endgroup$
– eggyal
11 hours ago












$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
11 hours ago




$begingroup$
Not mentioning adaptation, the required human intellectual resources is a bigger problem. Putting aside inventing, operating and maintaining high-end technologies (nuclear power plant) needs high IQ, specialized humans. You can have millions of factory workers, if you have none who qualified to be a factory manager, etc. More so than quantity, quality would be a better question. Controversial opinion, but there are reasons for Wakanda to not exist, while Germany and Japan do.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
11 hours ago




2




2




$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
9 hours ago




$begingroup$
That's why I'd argue that the question is too broad to be answered as asked. OP needs to define the parameters of his apocalypse for any kind of real answer to be possible.
$endgroup$
– Morris The Cat
9 hours ago













4












$begingroup$

I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.



You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
    $endgroup$
    – Alexander
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
    $endgroup$
    – user65791
    10 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    10 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
    $endgroup$
    – Starfish Prime
    10 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago
















4












$begingroup$

I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.



You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
    $endgroup$
    – Alexander
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
    $endgroup$
    – user65791
    10 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    10 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
    $endgroup$
    – Starfish Prime
    10 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago














4












4








4





$begingroup$

I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.



You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$



I've used a personal analogy for this, which I call "The brake pad problem." I estimate (without any serious research) that maybe a few hundred people around the world really know what it takes to manufacture an automobile brake pad. If you kill them all off, we're in serious trouble at least until a new process (or a reconstruction of the original) can be completed.
The idea is that everyone is incredibly specialized, and our outputs are very interconnected. This makes the whole system unstable. My WAG, then, is less than 5% of the people in industrial countries/regions would cause a complete collapse.



You might want to read Lucifer's Hammer for more ideas.







share|improve this answer












share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer










answered 11 hours ago









Carl WitthoftCarl Witthoft

28425




28425











  • $begingroup$
    So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
    $endgroup$
    – Alexander
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
    $endgroup$
    – user65791
    10 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    10 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
    $endgroup$
    – Starfish Prime
    10 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago

















  • $begingroup$
    So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
    $endgroup$
    – Alexander
    11 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
    $endgroup$
    – user65791
    10 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    10 hours ago






  • 2




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
    $endgroup$
    – Starfish Prime
    10 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago
















$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
11 hours ago




$begingroup$
So, in "Lucifer's Hammer", do you consider that civilization goes on, or that it fully collapsed?
$endgroup$
– Alexander
11 hours ago












$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
10 hours ago




$begingroup$
Actually this raises a good point—perhaps my question should not have been "how many are necessary to maintain..." but rather "how many deaths would result in collapse...".
$endgroup$
– user65791
10 hours ago












$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
10 hours ago




$begingroup$
Simply quantity isn't that describing either. It's more like how many of the specialized people have to die, without hope of a quick replacement for an industry to collapse and which industrial collapse would result in total technological collapse. There are many redundant elements and one similarly specialized survivor could fill in other roles with some effort and training if necessary learning material is available.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
10 hours ago




2




2




$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
10 hours ago




$begingroup$
@user65791 a significant edit after multiple answers have been posted is best avoided, I feel.
$endgroup$
– Starfish Prime
10 hours ago




1




1




$begingroup$
@user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
9 hours ago





$begingroup$
@user65791 you mentioned multiple causes. A pandemic kills more in poor nations without proper medical care, even if they are resistant. Rich nations can better treat the symptoms. Armed conflict, depending on its scale, purpose and so on, kills soldiers and poor. The highly educated can more easily move around and may even protected for their useful knowledge for the war. Natural disasters and wars also mess up the infrastructure, so rebuilding is also an issue on those cases.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
9 hours ago












0












$begingroup$

This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.



Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    "The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    No, not the whole West.
    $endgroup$
    – Curiosity
    1 hour ago















0












$begingroup$

This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.



Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    "The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    No, not the whole West.
    $endgroup$
    – Curiosity
    1 hour ago













0












0








0





$begingroup$

This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.



Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$



This answer might sound mean, but most people can be killed off without affecting the industries, if you choose the right people. You only need the people directly employed in the industries, the people supporting the cities and governments where those people live, the people providing supplies to those. Currently that's basically the West, factory places in Asia and some others scattered around the world. Probably around a billion people needed to keep everything running as it is, but could be less.



Although it depends where and in how many places you want to see modern civilisation. In all the places it exists around the world? In a select few nations? Or is one city enough?







share|improve this answer












share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer










answered 10 hours ago









CuriosityCuriosity

1545




1545











  • $begingroup$
    "The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    No, not the whole West.
    $endgroup$
    – Curiosity
    1 hour ago
















  • $begingroup$
    "The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    No, not the whole West.
    $endgroup$
    – Curiosity
    1 hour ago















$begingroup$
"The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
$endgroup$
– immibis
3 hours ago




$begingroup$
"The West" - what, the whole West? I highly doubt it.
$endgroup$
– immibis
3 hours ago












$begingroup$
No, not the whole West.
$endgroup$
– Curiosity
1 hour ago




$begingroup$
No, not the whole West.
$endgroup$
– Curiosity
1 hour ago











-2












$begingroup$

What we DON'T need



Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.



  • Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
    can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
    of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
    team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments.

  • Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
    and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels.

  • Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!

  • Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
    situation and type of government.

  • Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
    technology, so they too can be dismissed.

Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation



  • Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
    mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots.

  • Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
    heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
    people to operate and maintain the machinery.

  • Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
    they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
    them and so on. This too will affect the final number.

The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?



The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.




To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.






share|improve this answer










New contributor



Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.





$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
    $endgroup$
    – Penguino
    5 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
    $endgroup$
    – Ray Butterworth
    4 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    @RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago















-2












$begingroup$

What we DON'T need



Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.



  • Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
    can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
    of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
    team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments.

  • Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
    and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels.

  • Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!

  • Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
    situation and type of government.

  • Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
    technology, so they too can be dismissed.

Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation



  • Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
    mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots.

  • Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
    heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
    people to operate and maintain the machinery.

  • Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
    they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
    them and so on. This too will affect the final number.

The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?



The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.




To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.






share|improve this answer










New contributor



Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.





$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
    $endgroup$
    – Penguino
    5 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
    $endgroup$
    – Ray Butterworth
    4 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    @RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago













-2












-2








-2





$begingroup$

What we DON'T need



Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.



  • Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
    can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
    of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
    team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments.

  • Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
    and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels.

  • Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!

  • Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
    situation and type of government.

  • Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
    technology, so they too can be dismissed.

Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation



  • Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
    mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots.

  • Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
    heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
    people to operate and maintain the machinery.

  • Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
    they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
    them and so on. This too will affect the final number.

The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?



The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.




To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.






share|improve this answer










New contributor



Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.





$endgroup$



What we DON'T need



Let's start the answer in reverse. Who we can dismiss? Who we don't need to maintain modern technological levels. A good part of humanity if I says so. No offense for anyone.



  • Employees of huge companies who provide service to the masses? They
    can be significantly down-scaled. If functionality, the maintaining
    of technology instead of profit the purpose, only their engineering
    team. You can scrap their HR, sales, and so on departments.

  • Most services and its workers too - you don't need 20 kind of chips
    and cars and so on, to maintain modern technology levels.

  • Any kind of Media related profession - SCRAP!

  • Governmental bodies - Significantly downscaled, based on the
    situation and type of government.

  • Homeless, unemployed, and so on... they don't contribute to modern
    technology, so they too can be dismissed.

Other factors: Human intellect, productivity, automation



  • Automation - we are heading towards a heavily automated world, most
    mundane task can be or will be replaced by robots.

  • Human intellect - Automation means, you can dismiss almost all the
    heavy-lifters. You will however need highly educated and intelligent
    people to operate and maintain the machinery.

  • Productivity - much depends on the disposition of the people. Are
    they lazy? Hard-workers? Do you need police to manage big masses of
    them and so on. This too will affect the final number.

The final factor is, in this scenario, do all human capable of reaching the same intellectual level? Do they born equal in that regard? Or for example every hundredth people has high enough intellect?



The envisioned technology level of (modern) also changes to final number. Steam-engines are easier to understand than nuclear. A possibly future automation could reach fully automated factories with a few overseer required.




To calculate an accurate number without these factors, is beyond my capability.
At guess, a few hundred thousand or million, highly specialized human blessed with great intellectual capability could, in theory, all over the world operate and maintain the necessary machinery to keep it going.







share|improve this answer










New contributor



Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.








share|improve this answer



share|improve this answer








edited 8 hours ago





















New contributor



Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.








answered 10 hours ago









LupusLupus

856




856




New contributor



Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.




New contributor




Lupus is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.













  • $begingroup$
    I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
    $endgroup$
    – Penguino
    5 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
    $endgroup$
    – Ray Butterworth
    4 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    @RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago
















  • $begingroup$
    I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
    $endgroup$
    – Lupus
    9 hours ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
    $endgroup$
    – Penguino
    5 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
    $endgroup$
    – Ray Butterworth
    4 hours ago











  • $begingroup$
    @RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
    $endgroup$
    – immibis
    3 hours ago















$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
9 hours ago




$begingroup$
I would like a short note, comment on why the downvote, so I may look into the issue and improve my future answers. Thanks.
$endgroup$
– Lupus
9 hours ago




1




1




$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
5 hours ago





$begingroup$
I think this missed the real facts of what is required to keep the 'wheels' of an advanced civilization turning. Even with today's levels of automation, to mine raw materials and refine refine them, transport them, for example iron and aluminium and glass and cloth, and silicon, rate-earths, etc - then manufacture the products these are used in, maintain power supplies, communication and transport networks, water supplies, sewer systems, waste disposal etc. society needs a vast number of people who don't fit into the "highly specialized ... intellectual" milieu. And farming, forestry and...
$endgroup$
– Penguino
5 hours ago













$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
4 hours ago





$begingroup$
I didn't downvote you, but I suspect that any answer implying that some people are more valuable than other people will cause some readers to automatically downvote it. If by chance some downvotes were for other reasons, I too would like to know what they are.
$endgroup$
– Ray Butterworth
4 hours ago













$begingroup$
@RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
$endgroup$
– immibis
3 hours ago




$begingroup$
@RayButterworth That's kinda the premise of the question though. Some people are more necessary to maintain modern civilisation than others are. (Lots of the second group could retrain to be in the first group, of course)
$endgroup$
– immibis
3 hours ago










user65791 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.









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